National Compliance Dashboard
EFRIS Intelligence · Uganda Revenue Authority · Commissioner View · Live data
⚡ 127 anomalies detected this week — businesses whose invoice volumes are significantly below what their sector and size would predict. Estimated tax at risk: UGX 84 billion.
Review anomalies →
EFRIS Registered
184,240
Total businesses on EFRIS
Genuinely Active
89,420
48.5% — issued invoice <30 days
Dormant (0 invoices 90d)
4,821
Registered but not compliant
Anomaly Risk Score
127
High-risk — audit priority
Compliance Rate by Sector
Manufacturing72.4%
Wholesale & Retail58.1%
Services (ICT, professional)54.2%
Construction38.7%
Mining & Quarrying12.3%
Accommodation & Food21.8%
Top Audit Targets This Week
Monthly EFRIS Compliance vs Revenue Gap
Jan 2025
47.2%
compliance
Feb 2025
48.8%
compliance
Mar 2025
46.1%
compliance
Apr 2025
47.9%
compliance
May 2025
48.5%
compliance
📊 Despite growing registrations, the compliance rate has barely moved in 5 months — hovering around 48%. This is the core problem: more businesses registered but not more businesses genuinely compliant. EFRIS Intelligence identifies exactly which ones are not compliant and why.
National Compliance Heatmap
Districts ranked by EFRIS compliance rate — red = enforcement priority
Uganda — Compliance Rate by District
>60% compliant
40–60%
<40% — priority
District Compliance Rankings
| District | Registered | Active | Rate | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kampala | 48,420 | 34,120 | 70.5% | Good |
| Wakiso | 18,240 | 11,040 | 60.5% | Good |
| Jinja | 6,420 | 3,520 | 54.8% | Monitor |
| Mbarara | 5,840 | 2,980 | 51.0% | Monitor |
| Gulu | 4,120 | 1,640 | 39.8% | Enforce |
| Arua | 3,480 | 1,180 | 33.9% | Priority |
| Mbale | 3,120 | 980 | 31.4% | Priority |
| Lira | 2,840 | 780 | 27.5% | Priority |
Dormant Taxpayer Detection
4,821 businesses registered on EFRIS but have not issued a single invoice in over 90 days — representing estimated uncollected tax of UGX 48 billion
🚨 4,821 dormant accounts detected. These businesses registered under pressure but never used EFRIS. They are in the tax net on paper — but completely outside it in practice. Targeting these with a re-engagement campaign could recover UGX 48+ billion in annual tax.
Dormant >90 days
4,821
Zero invoices issued
Estimated Tax at Risk
UGX 48B
Annual if brought to compliance
Re-engagement SMS Sent
1,240
This week — 18% response rate
Dormant Taxpayer Registry
| Business | TIN | Sector | District | Registered | Last Invoice | Days Dormant | Est. Annual Tax | Action |
|---|
Anomaly Detection
Businesses whose EFRIS invoice patterns don't match what their sector, size, or history would predict — a strong signal of underreporting
Anomaly Types Detected
Invoice suppression
Turnover reported far below sector median for business size
Sudden volume drop
Invoice volume dropped >60% from prior 3-month average
Round-number clustering
90%+ of invoices are round numbers — manual entry manipulation
Refund claim anomaly
VAT refund claims exceed output VAT issued — impossible math
Risk Score Distribution
Critical Risk (90–100)24 businesses
High Risk (70–89)38 businesses
Medium Risk (50–69)65 businesses
Low Risk (below 50)89,000+ businesses
ANOMALY-2025-0127 · Critical Risk Score: 96/100
🚨 Kampala Steel Fabricators Ltd — Invoice Suppression
TIN 1002341876 · Manufacturing sector · Namanve. Declared UGX 8.4M monthly turnover via EFRIS. Sector median for a factory with 42 employees is UGX 184M/month. Business has 3 lorries registered at UNRA, leases 2 warehouse bays, and imports raw steel quarterly from Kenya. EFRIS invoices suggest a business 22x smaller than all external indicators. Estimated underreported tax: UGX 3.2B annually.
ANOMALY-2025-0126 · High Risk Score: 84/100
⚠ Arua Border Traders Co-op — Sudden Volume Drop
TIN 1008742341 · Wholesale trade · Arua. EFRIS invoices averaged UGX 84M/month for Jan–Mar 2025. April 2025 dropped to UGX 4.2M — a 95% decline. No business closure notice filed. Directors still active at URSB. Customs records show continued cross-border imports from DRC in April–May. Likely switched to unrecorded cash transactions after an enforcement visit.
ANOMALY-2025-0125 · High Risk Score: 78/100
⚠ Kampala ICT Services Ltd — VAT Refund Anomaly
TIN 1004821034 · ICT services · Kampala. Filed VAT refund claim of UGX 184M for April 2025. Total output VAT issued via EFRIS in April: UGX 42M. Claiming UGX 142M more in input VAT than output VAT issued — arithmetically impossible for a service business with minimal capital expenditure. Supplier invoices supporting the input claim include 3 vendors not found in EFRIS registry.
AI-Prioritised Audit Queue
Businesses ranked by compliance risk score — highest ROI targets for URA field investigators
ℹ Data-driven enforcement: Instead of blanket inspections costing URA field teams weeks of wasted effort, EFRIS Intelligence ranks every business by risk score. A field investigator visits the top 10 on this list — they are statistically the highest-yield targets. Last quarter's AI-prioritised audits recovered an average of UGX 840M per audit vs UGX 82M from random audits.
Priority Audit Queue — Top 20
Revenue Intelligence
Where Uganda's tax gap is, why it exists, and how much is recoverable
Tax Gap Anatomy — May 2025
URA revenue targetUGX 29.0T
Actual collectionUGX 27.3T
Revenue gapUGX 1.7T
Gap attributed to:
Dormant EFRIS (not filing)UGX 480B
Invoice suppression (anomalies)UGX 840B
Informal sector (no EFRIS)UGX 380B
Recoverable Revenue — If Gaps Closed
Activate dormant EFRIS accounts
4,821 businesses · Avg UGX 10M/year eachUGX 48B/year
Audit top 127 anomaly cases
Avg UGX 840M recovery per auditUGX 107B potential
EFRIS Bridge — informal sector
14,820 informal biz · Growing 30%/monthUGX 55B/year
Total recoverable (Year 1)UGX 210B
Tax Gap Forecast
Projected EFRIS compliance trajectory and revenue impact — 12-month outlook
Compliance Rate Forecast — With vs Without Intelligence-Led Enforcement
Current trajectory (no intervention)52% by Dec 2025
With EFRIS Intelligence enforcement71% by Dec 2025
With Intelligence + Bridge (informal)84% by Dec 2025
⚡ Moving from 48.5% to 84% compliance would generate an additional UGX 4.2 trillion in annual tax revenue — closing the entire 2025 revenue gap and setting URA on a path to the 20% tax-to-GDP target.
No intervention (Dec 2025)
UGX 27.8T
Projected collections
With Intelligence only
UGX 29.6T
Exceeds target by UGX 600B
Intelligence + Bridge
UGX 32.1T
+UGX 3.1T above target
Sector Analysis
EFRIS compliance broken down by sector — where the gaps are and why
All Sectors — Compliance Dashboard
| Sector | Registered | Active | Compliance % | Avg Invoice/mo | Est. Tax Gap/year | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 8,420 | 6,096 | 72.4% | UGX 4.2M | UGX 84B | Good |
| Wholesale & Retail | 42,180 | 24,508 | 58.1% | UGX 1.8M | UGX 340B | Monitor |
| ICT & Professional Services | 12,840 | 6,959 | 54.2% | UGX 3.4M | UGX 184B | Monitor |
| Transport & Storage | 8,240 | 3,955 | 48.0% | UGX 2.1M | UGX 120B | Enforce |
| Construction | 14,820 | 5,734 | 38.7% | UGX 8.4M | UGX 480B | Priority |
| Accommodation & Food | 18,240 | 3,977 | 21.8% | UGX 840K | UGX 240B | Priority |
| Mining & Quarrying | 2,840 | 349 | 12.3% | UGX 12.4M | UGX 128B | Priority |
| Real Estate | 6,420 | 1,605 | 25.0% | UGX 6.8M | UGX 180B | Priority |